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2025 Market Summary and 2026 Market Forecast

An easy-to-understand summary of 2025 market trends and a forward-looking forecast that explains what they mean for Utah home values and real estate decisions in 2026.

2025 Market Summary and 2026 Market Forecast

As we look forward to 2026, the three questions we get asked as Realtors in almost every conversation at the beginning of every new year are:

  1. How is the market?
  2. What is your market forecast for the upcoming year (2026)?
  3. What do you estimate the value of my property/equity to be currently?
 

To answer these questions, we will start with a brief market history.

Brief Market History over the past 6 years

To say that real estate values and markets have been dramatically impacted these past 6 years since COVID, inflation, high interest rates and then the election would be a gross understatement.

For the first two years of COVID, real estate experienced unprecedented appreciation and value increases in the hottest Sellers market of all time. In March 2020 when COVID first hit, the median sold price across Utah was right at $340,000. By the end of 2020 this number jumped up to $382k (12% appreciation), by the end of summer 2021 it was at $455k (34% appreciation in 18 months) and finally peaked in May 2022 at a staggering $540k (59% appreciation in 26 months)!

Prior to 2020, 30 year Fixed Mortgage Rates had been in the 3.75% to 4.25% range for years before rising to as high as almost 5% in November 2018; but due to some global economic uncertainty, rates dropped back down to as low as 3.5% prior to COVID. As a result of COVID and in an attempt to keep the economy going, interest rates dropped to as low as a staggering 2.5% to 2.75% in 2020 and then stayed low for the next 1.5 years, with rates around 3.25% to start 2022.

The war with Russia started in early 2022 which in part started a rapid rise in inflation, resulting in the fastest and most dramatic increases to interest rates recorded in US history! This jump in interest rates AND higher home values caused the real estate markets to quickly pump the brakes starting in the 2nd Quarter of 2022. Interest rates jumped from around 3.25% to start 2022 to a whopping 7% by Oct. 2022, a 3.75% increase in just 9 months! Rates remained high for the next 12 months, peaking in Oct. of 2023 at 8%. Since then rates bounced back and forth from 6% to 7.25%.

Interest Rates Are Improving in Early 2026

Interest rates so far in 2026 have been favorable and trending downward, driven by a combination of political action, policy pressure, and market response.

In the first days of January, Donald Trump made two major announcements with direct implications for real estate and mortgage rates, alongside continued pressure on the Federal Reserve to aggressively lower interest rates.

1. Limiting Institutional Investors in Single-Family Housing

President Trump announced plans to limit or restrict large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, aiming to increase housing supply for individual buyers and reduce competition from Wall Street-backed firms.

Sources & Key Takeaways:

 

2. $200 Billion Mortgage Bond Purchase to Lower Rates

President Trump directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities, a move designed to push mortgage rates lower by increasing liquidity in the housing finance system.

Sources & Key Takeaways:

 

3. Political Pressure Points to Fed Rate Cuts in 2026

Economists anticipate that continued political pressure will lead the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively than previously expected.

Source & Key Takeaway:

 

Where Rates Stand Now

  • 30-year fixed mortgage rate: ~6.01% nationwide
  • As of: January 12, 2026
  • Lowest level since: August 29, 2022 (≈ 3.5 years)
  • Outlook: Rates are expected to continue improving throughout 2026

 

Bottom Line

Early 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most promising environments for real estate financing in years, driven by:

  • Federal action to rebalance housing supply
  • Large-scale mortgage market intervention
  • Anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts

For buyers, sellers, and homeowners considering refinancing, momentum is clearly moving in the right direction.

 

Answer #1 – How is the Market? 

Even with elevated interest rates throughout 2024 and 2025, Utah home values have remained exceptionally strong. As of the end of 2025, statewide median prices are only slightly below- or in some segments have matched or exceeded- their previous all-time highs set in Q2 2022. This continued price stability, despite rates remaining well above historic lows, is strong evidence of the resilience, sustained demand, and long-term desirability of Utah real estate markets.

Here are some charts and graphs for those of you who love numbers.  

All of Utah:

Washington County:

As shown in the graphs above, Utah home prices have continued to hold steady and trend upward throughout 2024 and 2025, even as interest rates remained elevated. Inventory levels remained relatively constrained, while buyer activity strengthened- particularly into late 2025- resulting in higher fourth-quarter sales compared to recent years. With interest rates now improving in early 2026 and broader economic conditions stabilizing, Utah’s housing markets are well-positioned for increased activity, renewed competition, and continued price strength as consumer confidence returns.

 

 

Answer #2 -Market Forecast for 2026

The general consensus among economists and housing experts entering 2025 was that interest rates would begin to ease as inflation moderated and the election cycle concluded—and that expectation largely played out through late 2025 and into early 2026. As rates stabilized and gradually improved, buyer activity increased meaningfully, with sales volume strengthening in the second half of 2025 and closing the year at its highest quarterly levels since the post-2022 slowdown.

Throughout 2025, Utah home values continued to trend upward, with the statewide median sold price rising from approximately $498,000 in January to over $517,000 by December, while maintaining strong list-to-sale price ratios near 96–98% and relatively stable days on market. This price performance indicates sustained buyer demand despite elevated borrowing costs.

Looking ahead, most national housing forecasts project moderate home price appreciation in 2026—generally in the 1% to 4% range—while mortgage rates are expected to stabilize in the low 6% range. Given the continued strength of Utah home values and the state’s underlying economic fundamentals, we anticipate housing demand to increase steadily in 2026. At the same time, more homeowners are expected to list properties after delaying moves due to higher rates, post-election uncertainty, or personal and geographic changes, supporting a more active and healthier real estate market for both buyers and sellers.

 

Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate a more active and balanced Utah real estate market, with total transaction volume increasing as interest rates stabilize and buyer confidence continues to improve. Buyer demand is expected to remain strong relative to available supply in many areas, which should support renewed competition and continued upward pressure on home values. While price growth is expected to be more moderate than in peak years, Utah home values are projected to continue rising in 2026, particularly in high-demand and high-growth markets, depending on interest rate trends and broader economic conditions.

 

Answer #3 -Value/Equity Estimate of your property/properties in Utah

At the beginning of each year, we find our past clients, and Utah homeowners in general, like to know the value of their home/properties for a number of different reasons, including refinancing, looking to remove mortgage insurance, opening up a home equity line of credit, divorce, death, loss of employment or considering moving or upgrading, etc.

Well, today is your lucky day! We are providing free value and equity estimates, also known as a CMA or Comparative Market Analysis reports, for our past, current, and future clients.

Many turn to Zillow (Z-estimates), the county assessed value, neighbors opinions or rumors of values, etc. These are often very inaccurate sources and we want to make sure you have the most accurate estimate available, especially if you are basing some decisions on this value. 

 

In Summary

The past year reinforced what makes Utah’s real estate market unique: strong demand, limited supply, and consistent long-term growth. As conditions continue to normalize in 2026, preparation and education will matter more than timing alone. 

 

If you have real estate questions or goals within the next 18 months, contact our team to start the conversation and stay ahead of the market.

Get A Free Home Value Estimate

If you’d like a personalized value and equity estimate for your Utah property, our team would be happy to prepare one for you. Each report is customized based on current market data, comparable sales, and property-specific details—and may include input from multiple members of our team to provide added insight and accuracy.

To get started, simply email us your property address along with any relevant details that may not be available through public records, such as recent updates, renovations, or major changes, as well as your current mortgage or lien balances. We’ll review the information and send you a custom value and equity report as quickly as possible.

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